Can the battery minerals market keep up with technological shifts and global tensions?

13 03 2026 | 10:10Theresa Smith / ESI AFRICA

Battery energy storage technologies are evolving rapidly, which Roland Chavasse, Secretary General, International Lithium Association, thinks could mean exciting times for Africa’s future battery minerals market and production.

To provide context, Chavasse traced the origins of rechargeable lithium batteries, noting that the first one was produced by ExxonMobil in 1977. It was large and went through three iterations before the first commercial one was used by Sony in camcorders in 1991.

By 2011, rechargeable lithium batteries were being used in portable devices such as phones and watches, but it was only when electric vehicles began mass production about six years later that the impact exploded.

“Today, the battery industry is ten times larger than it was 20 years ago. At the moment, we are looking at a market in terms of terrawatt hours; it’s about 1.5TWh produced last year,” said Chavasse.

The IEA says the global lithium-ion battery market exceeded $150 billion in 2025, an increase of over 20% from 2024

“In 2030, it should be about 4.5TWh, so tripling the market. doubling by 2040, up to possibly 11TWh,” posited Chavasse.

As he explained at the Investing in African Mining Indaba on a panel discussion on the battery minerals market, this fast-growing sector means “an enormous requirement for all sorts of critical minerals materials, particularly lithium, copper, nickel, cobalt, and possibly manganese. There are various forms of lithium batteries,” said Chavasse.

China’s outsized influence on the battery minerals market

Mikhail Nikomarov, a partner at Boston Consulting Group, says he has spent the past 18 months examining battery supply chains and critical minerals, noting that China has been consistently focused on investing in Africa over the past 15 years.

As Nikomarov puts it, there are pros and cons for any African country to work with China. Though the Far Eastern country is becoming more sensitive to the localised requirements of African countries, it remains focused on processing critical minerals in China, regardless of where they are sourced.

Nikomarov sees Japan, the UK and the EU as all trying to move beyond China’s domination of the critical minerals market to build more long-term, diversified supply chains than the US’s more transactional approach to Africa and critical minerals mining.

“Obama focused on power, Biden on healthcare, but for Trump, it is critical minerals. It’s very short-term; they want to get as much done as possible before the next election,” he explained.

He sees the Gulf countries emerging as a source of investment for Africa and more attention from India due to rapid electrification. “You do now have a lot more options than before,” said Nikomarov.

Right now, though, there is a misalignment in timing—commodity pricing determines a mine’s cost and whether it is bankable, and it takes up to 15 years to get a mining project started—so capitalising on this boom in interest in Africa’s mineral resources is a tricky proposition.

Risk and strategy

Bady Baldé, Deputy Executive Director, EITI International Secretariat, is optimistic about the Extractive Industry Transparency Initiative (EITI). This multi-stakeholder collaboration was launched in 2002 to strengthen public oversight, improve governance and foster trust in how natural resource wealth is utilised.

As of 2023, more than 55 countries have implemented the standard, which requires disclosure on

  • beneficial ownership,
  • contract transparency,
  • state-owned enterprise operations, and
  • revenue management.

Still, Baldé recommends caution when it comes to the battery sector: “It is a rapidly evolving technology. There are opportunities, but we cannot be blind to the fact that it is not yet a mature technology. You can make the wrong bet and find yourself in a situation where your investment does not achieve the outcome you were hoping for.”

He reminded the audience of Northvault, the Swedish battery manufacturer, which declared bankruptcy in 2025 due to debt, production issues, and rising capital costs. [Basically, they ran into technical failures, delayed output and competition with Asian battery manufacturers.]

“One approach Africa could take is a strategic phased approach. An analogy is the aviation sector. We know what an Airbus is, how sophisticated it is. I don’t think any country is going to say, ‘I’m going to manufacture the Airbus. But you might say, ‘I’ll start with the doors, move on to the rotor.’

“Perhaps thinking of going for the battery gigafactory might not be the attainable goal in the short to medium term, and we need to be realistic about that. But a phased approach, because we have a number of minerals here, could be the answer,” said Baldé

Risk in the battery minerals markets

Baldé warned that data analysis would be key to determine the exact mineral a country should invest into. Using cobalt as an example, he reminded that a Tesla car needed around 25 pounds (11kg) for an EV in 2015, but by 2021, this mineral was no longer a requirement.

Chavasse noted the risk in investing in a mineral that has only one application, as opposed to say copper, which is used in batteries, vehicles, solar panels and all manner of wiring.

The certainty that electricity as an energy carrier will become more widely used over this century means several use cases for copper, compared with the use case for platinum in a catalytic converter, given that ICE vehicles are meant to be phased out over the next few decades.

“You do need to take risks. The lesson from Northvault is ‘think hard about what you’re doing’ and if you’re a smaller country, maybe don’t do just one thing. I would caution us not to fear risk, but you do need to be mindful and intentional in a portfolio.”

Cover photo:  Capitalising on the interest in Africa’s mineral resources is a matter of timing and insight.

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