Labor has good reason to sweat over its 2035 climate target – but the dishevelled Coalition response rings hollow

The scale of the government’s ambition heightens the stakes for all sides of politics and will probably determine how Albanese’s second term plays out

Back in January 2021, when Australia was stuck in the warped reality of the pandemic, Anthony Albanese reshuffled Labor’s shadow cabinet in a bid to shore up support for his leadership.

Mark Butler, Albanese’s close ally and left faction heavyweight, had agreed to move out of the climate and energy portfolio, in a bid to stop bloodletting over whether Labor’s emissions policies were too ambitious and turning off voters. Albanese moved Chris Bowen into the role, charging the senior right faction member with reframing the debate from an environmental issue to one of economic reform.

Maintaining his grip on the party and winning the 2022 election, Albanese inherited management of one of the biggest policy challenges ever faced by governments.

More than three years later and with the party’s dominance in the new parliament established, Bowen stood with Albanese on a major step forward this week. Announcing new climate targets for 2035, Labor has pledged to cut carbon emissions by between 62% and 70% from 2005 levels in the next decade, based on a mountain of detailed advice from the Climate Change Authority.

Whether or not Bowen has succeeded in bringing an economic lens to the politics of climate change, and whether voters are more disposed to Labor’s plans, might be a singular test for all sides of politics.

The scale of the government’s ambitions dramatically heighten the stakes for Labor, the Coalition and the Greens, likely determining much of how Albanese’s second term will play out. It is nothing short of a major reorientation of the economy, while for the environment, the stakes could hardly be higher.

After anticipating criticism from all sides whatever target the government settled on, Bowen has insisted this week that anything beyond emissions cuts of 70% is impossible to achieve. Instead, he says, the government has chosen the “maximum level of ambition” for Australia, with particular focus on electricity supply, transport and industry.

Labor released specific pathways for six sectors of the economy to be buffeted by the transition, as well as about $8bn in measures designed to spur uptake in renewables. Treasury modelling showed cutting emissions by 65%, the bottom end of the target, could grow the economy $2tn by 2050.

The roadshow to sell the plan got under way on Friday, when Bowen appeared with cricketer Pat Cummins to talk up $50m to help sports clubs do their bit with facilities upgrades such as battery systems.

The UK’s target of 78% sits at the top end of international moves for 2035. European countries are considering a range of 63% to 70% from 1990 levels, which Bowen sees as vindication that Australia is among the most ambitious nations. Donald Trump’s reckless disregard for climate change is a huge gap in the global response to the challenge.

There is interesting detail in the advice and modelling released this week, even if the numbers should be taken with a large grain of salt.

Treasury said the government’s plans for an “orderly transition” would place downward pressure on wholesale electricity prices, worth as much as 20% by the 2050s, because renewables with firming power are the cheapest form of new generation. The so-called “disorderly” option – a polite political framing for the Coalition’s plans – would increase wholesale prices by an average of 17% during the 2030s, growing to 54% in the 2040s.

By 2050, Treasury sees the plan pushing wholesale electricity prices to 10% below the 10-year real historical average.

Household prices might come down by about $1,000 per year because of electrification, while homes with solar panels, home batteries and an EV in the garage might save up something closer to $4,000. Those numbers, described as “long-run savings” weren’t highlighted by Labor, still badly burned by Albanese’s 2022 promise of cutting household power bills by $275.

The prime minister has often expressed frustration over questions about whether he has the mettle to deliver lasting reforms worthy of Labor greats such as Whitlam, Hawke and Keating. With a thumping election victory and an opposition charitably described as dishevelled on the question of climate and energy policy, starting the urgent work of meeting the targets would be a major achievement.

None of it is going to be easy.

Labor is sweating over meeting its target for 2030, a 43% reduction on 2005 levels, because that goal requires a dramatic increase in the use of renewable energy. Then things get really hard: the Climate Change Authority says the new 2035 target will require as much as 93% renewable energy, huge investments in carbon capture and storage systems, millions of tree plantings, and thousands of kilometres of new poles and wires.

At the household level, expect to see twice as many rooftop solar panels and as much as a 20-fold increase in the number of EVs on the roads.

The opposition’s response to the targets sounded hollow.

Opposition leader, Sussan Ley, and deputy, Ted O’Brien, dismissed the government’s plans almost instantly, suggesting Labor was in “fantasy land” planning for 2035 targets when it couldn’t meet its existing goals for 2030. Ley neglected to mention the Coalition had no 2030 target of its own before the 3 May election.

She insisted the Coalition was united, even as the Liberals and Nationals tear themselves apart over net zero – the lowest common denominator approach required to keep the world’s atmosphere from warming beyond the damaging 1.5C threshold.

The opposition’s internal climate debate, and questions about Ley’s leadership more broadly, are seeing a sorting of the Coalition’s right flank between those prepared to stay inside the tent and work to bring the fight to Labor, and those in a pushy Maga-like faction trying to blow the whole show up.

Along with Albanese, Bowen has a huge task ahead of him turning the new plan into a reality. The climate change and energy minister will travel to next week’s UN general assembly to make the case for Australia’s roadmap.

He was blunt on Friday as he sought to dispatch critics and get on with the job. “With all due respect to those commentators who say we should be doing more, they don’t need to deliver, the government does,” he said.

Nothing could be closer to the truth.

Cover photo:  ‘Announcing new climate targets for 2035, Labor has pledged to cut carbon emissions by between 62% and 70% from 2005 levels in the next decade.’ Photograph: Dan Himbrechts/AAP