Sustainable. Abundant. Feasible – why SAF is unlikely to be all three at once.

Alternative jet fuels (AJF), often referred to as sustainable aviation fuels or SAF, are unlikely to deliver material emissions cuts this decade. Even if all existing, under-development and announced projects ran at full capacity, AJF would account for only about 5% of global jet fuel and meet less than half of projected demand growth by 2030. Longer-term, hurdles like high costs, scarce sustainable feedstocks and weak bankability may keep further scaling constrained. Truly sustainable AJF should be preserved for long-haul flights, with other, maturing solutions deployed to decarbonise short-haul flights. 

“By 2030, the potential supply from existing and announced alternative fuel projects will cover only a small share of global jet fuel demand.” 

AJF capacity vs total jet fuel consumption, Mt

Even assuming 100% utilisation, existing and announced projects will supply only ca.5% of global jet fuel in 2030.

Utilisation reality – growth gap to 2030

At an 80% utilisation rate, additional AJF capacity meets only 17–30% of incremental demand to 2030; for every additional tonne of jet fuel potentially displaced, more than one additional tonne will not.

Cover photo: By Carbon Tracker