4 climate threats put Africa’s solar boom at rising risk

Climate-related threats pose material risks to the financial viability and long-term performance of solar PV assets

Four escalating climate threats threaten to undermine Africa’s rapid expansion of solar power, despite the technology emerging as the continent’s strongest option to close its vast energy access gap, according to a new technical assessment from the Global Centre on Adaptation (GCA).

Nearly 600 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa still lack electricity, even as population growth and rising incomes drive steep increases in demand. 

Solar PV has quickly become the go-to least-cost power source across much of the continent, helping push clean energy investment up 12% to $36.6 billion in 2023, with solar taking a larger share of the pipeline, the technical report points out. 

Africa’s ambition, backed by the World Bank and African Development Bank, is to connect 300 million people to electricity by 2030, with solar at the centre of that effort under the Mission 300 banner.

But GCA warns that four climate-related threats

• extreme heat,
• dust and drought,
• wildfires, and
• flooding/storms

now pose material risks to both the financial viability and long-term performance of solar PV assets.

Climate threats to solar expansion

1. Heat stress threatens output and asset lifespans

Rising temperatures and increasingly frequent heatwaves are already eroding performance. Solar modules lose 0.4% to 0.5% efficiency for every 1°C above 25°C, meaning output drops by 3% to 5% on a 35°C day. Heatwaves exceeding 40°C can shorten conductor lifespans by up to 40%.

Under high-warming scenarios (RCP 8.5), heatwaves are projected to become severe to very severe across all assessed African countries, cutting solar revenues by 10–20%. In the Sahel, this equates to $87,000 to $122,000 in annual losses for a 10MW plant, amounting to several million dollars over a standard 20-year PPA.

2. Dust and drought drive heavy soiling and revenue losses

Dust storms and drought-driven land degradation are emerging as major operational challenges. Dust accumulation can reduce output by 5% to 25%, and by as much as 60% in desert regions. Cleaning cycles increase 20–30%, pushing up operating costs.

In Mali, repeated dust storms caused outages across mini-grid networks, leaving local businesses – especially cold-chain operators – facing daily revenue losses of $50 to $100 per shop.

3. Wildfires increase asset destruction and smoke-related losses

Wildfires pose both direct and indirect risks. Solar panels and cabling can be destroyed by fire, while smoke and ash reduce irradiance and lower production. GCA estimates wildfire-related generation losses at 5% to 10% of annual revenues. In Mozambique, wildfires represent 94% of the replacement value at risk for transmission assets linked to solar projects.

4. Flooding and storms damage infrastructure and delay construction

Extreme rainfall, flash floods and coastal storm surges are slowing project development and damaging operational sites. Heavy precipitation and flooding can trigger 10% to 20% revenue losses, while rising seas – projected to increase 10cm to 36cm by 2050 – heighten coastal corrosion, foundation instability and electrical failure risks.

Across West Africa’s coastal zones, storm surges and higher tides increase the likelihood of short circuits, grounding failures, and costly downtime.

Resilient solar design can ‘de-risk’ projects

Despite the mounting risks, GCA argues that climate-resilient solar PV offers one of the strongest opportunities for investors to protect long-term returns while safeguarding community benefits.

Adaptation measures – such as elevating infrastructure, relocating sites away from flood-prone zones, using heat-resistant modules and improving drainage or slope stabilisation – can add 15% to 30% to upfront costs.

But the benefits are substantial: some projects show benefit-cost ratios of up to 20:1, driven by avoided damage, reduced downtime and more stable revenue streams.

These measures also improve bankability, lowering operational risks and insurance premiums and ensuring vital services – from health clinics to small businesses – maintain power during climate shocks, the GCA says.

A decisive moment for Africa’s solar future

The report concludes that Africa’s solar boom remains one of its strongest tools for closing the continent’s energy access gap and supporting economic expansion.

But without systematic integration of adaptation measures, rising climate hazards risk slowing deployment, undermining investor confidence and eroding the financial case for clean energy.

“Climate-resilient solar is not a cost – it’s insurance for Africa’s energy future,” the GCA notes.

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