Australia has an Everest to climb if it wants to protect itself from climate catastrophe. But do we have the political resolve?

The National Adaptation Plan is only a small step towards a comprehensive strategy to build resilience into Australia’s economy

It is a warm spring day in my home town in regional Victoria. The sun is shining, an ocean breeze rocks the tea trees and swarms of dragonflies dance outside my window. There is, however, a cloud over me as my mind keeps returning to the National Climate Risk Assessment (NCRA) released earlier in the week.

I have been assessing climate risks and translating this into policy action for 35 years. Even for people like me, the National Climate Risk Assessment findings are confronting. They are also not new, nor alarmist.

In 2022 and signed off by the then Coalition government, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change stated that Australia and New Zealand “faces an extremely challenging future” and “the projected warming under current global emissions reduction policies would leave many of the region’s human and natural systems at very high risk and beyond adaptation limits”.

The report’s findings, however, are not the primary source of heaviness that weighs on me. Rather, it is my question: will our response match the scale of the risk we face?

When Sussan Ley, who was the environment minister at the time, committed to developing this National Climate Risk Assessment in 2021, it was initiated to “ensure there is a shared understanding among governments, businesses and communities of adaptation and resilience building priorities”. The intention was for this assessment to be updated regularly.

The primary role of the National Climate Risk Assessment is not to make the case for emissions reductions but to inform Australia’s National Adaptation Plan. (There are a vast range of adaptation options ranging from information on how to cope with bushfires to hardening infrastructure to the managed retreat of whole communities from rising oceans.)

That document, released alongside the National Climate Risk Assessment this week, has received next to no attention in the media over the last few days.

The National Adaptation Plan sets out some real and tangible steps for national leadership on adaptation but, at this point, as Australia’s leading adaptation experts have highlighted, the actions don’t yet add up to the comprehensive plan the nation needs.

For example, commonwealth support for ongoing climate disaster recovery efforts across Australia between 2019 and 2023 was $15.9bn. For comparison, budget commitments over the next five years towards Strengthening Medicare are $1.2bn, increased payments under the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme are $3.4bn and funding towards priority road and rail infrastructure projects are $2.9bn.

The National Climate Risk Assessment estimates, conservatively, the commonwealth will increase 200-600% for disaster recovery with 2-3C of global warming.

This issue points to a systemic challenge in Australia’s political system. Indeed, the National Climate Risk Assessment itself points to weaknesses in our institutions of government that contribute to the risks climate change poses to the people, the economy and the landscapes of Australia.

How do we integrate adaptation across all ministerial portfolios, while climate impacts are already straining budgets and communities? How do we normalise and institutionalise conversations between governments on how to respond?

On the positive, the plan highlights the synergies that can be created by integrating emissions reduction and adaptation.

Climateworks Centre research shows, for example, that renovating existing housing stock to be more efficient can save households thousands of dollars a year in energy costs. Insurers are offering lower premiums to households that use simple tools to make their homes more fire or flood-proof.

Improving emissions and climate resilience outcomes at the same time makes sense.

The Climate Change Authority, Australia’s independent expert adviser to the government and parliament, recommended that the Climate Change Act be updated to require regular national Climate Risk Assessments and Adaptation plans. They and the Productivity Commission have also recommended the authority be legislated and resourced to monitor progress on adaptation.

Such changes have broad support from stakeholder groups ranging from those representing vulnerable people and communities to bodies representing the nation’s largest investors. It would also likely draw parliamentary support.

Regular monitoring and updates to the National Climate Risk Assessment and the Adaptation Plan would give the community, business and investors confidence that the government will remain on task and be accountable for building a national response to the dangers we face.

The National Adaptation Plan is a small but necessary first step in bringing climate adaptation into core decision-making. We are at the foothills of Everest. The plan takes a step towards resilience for community and economy but we have a long climb ahead of us and won’t get there without legislated resolve.

Cover photo:  ‘Even for people like me, the National Climate Risk Assessment findings are confronting. They are also not new, nor alarmist.’ Photograph: Roni Bintang/Getty Images