Trump tariffs to reshape Africa’s critical minerals outlook

Communication between stakeholders will be critical as tariffs, quotas and strategic alliances reshape trade, Mining Indaba heard

 

New tariffs, stockpiling policies and supply-chain alliances are beginning to redraw the map of global critical minerals trade, with African producers facing new risks and unexpected opportunities, panellists said at the Investing in African Mining Indaba 2026.

During a discussion titled Critical minerals investment in a post-tariff world, experts said recent trade measures – particularly from the US under President Donald Trump – are altering long-standing commercial relationships and forcing governments and investors to rethink how African resources are developed.

US move on tariffs for critical minerals  

The panellists also referenced the significance of a recent meeting (4 February) between, amongst others, African ministers and officials who gathered in Washington for the inaugural Critical Minerals Ministerial, hosted by the US State Department to strengthen supply chains and reduce reliance on China. Fifty countries in total attended the event.

Key discussions involved the US proposal for a preferential trading area for critical minerals.

This would include what has been termed as “adjustable tariffs” to maintain price floors and prevent the dumping of low-priced materials.

South Africa lambasts DRC over US deal

The Daily Maverick reported last week (10 February) that South Africa’s Minister of Mineral and Petroleum Resources Gwede Mantashe “clashed with his Congolese counterpart at the African Mining Indaba over the critical minerals deal that the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) signed with the US last year.”

The publication reported that at a closed ministerial meeting at the indaba in Cape Town on Sunday Mantashe had accused the DRC of “selling out, or words to that effect,” to the US, according to two African analysts who witnessed the exchange.

Extractive model persists

The panellists at Mining Indaba struck a more even tone, with Mahnaz Khan, Vice President of Policy at the Silverado Policy Accelerator, pointing out that existing trade arrangements still largely treat Africa as a supplier of raw materials.

She pointed to the US African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which was recently reauthorised for one year, noting that it maintains duty-free access primarily for raw or minimally processed minerals.

“AGOA is status quo… it has a similar structure where it’s an extractive model,” Khan said.

While tariff exemptions remain for concentrates and lightly processed materials, she warned that tariffs apply once countries attempt deeper processing such as battery materials—precisely the area African governments are trying to enter.

African countries have more negotiating power than they think they have

Policy shifts influence investment

From an investor perspective, Helaina Matza, Chief Strategic Development Officer at TechMet, said recent US policy developments are beginning to provide clearer signals to the market.

She highlighted three emerging tools:

• civilian stockpiling
• direct government investment
• strategic alliances with partner countries

 

The stockpiling approach aims to stabilise volatile commodity markets and guarantee offtake. “It helps give us a little more certainty,” Matza said, adding that bilateral partnerships could create more predictable investment conditions.

She said the concept of “friend-shoring” – sourcing from trusted partners – is evolving beyond traditional Western allies and increasingly includes African states.

“I’ve seen more delegations from Guinea and the DRC… negotiating how they come into this mix,” she said. TechMet itself operates projects in South Africa and Rwanda and is watching negotiations closely.

Supply chains and China

However, Dinah McLeod, Director-General of the Cobalt Institute, cautioned that geopolitical supply-chain strategies could produce unintended consequences for African producers.

About 70% of cobalt mines and processing facilities in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) are Chinese-owned, she said, meaning attempts to exclude China from supply chains could destabilise production.

“You can’t just say ‘no China’ and not negatively affect DRC cobalt mining,” McLeod said.

DRC take steps

She also highlighted the DRC’s own intervention: an export ban followed by a quota system for cobalt aimed at supporting beneficiation and stabilising prices.

The policy supports a government-backed programme, Entreprise Générale du Cobalt (EGC), designed to formalise artisanal mining and allow buyers to source regulated small-scale production.

The initiative could improve traceability and address concerns such as child labour, but success depends on certification systems, infrastructure and financing.

“Infrastructure in the DRC is sorely lacking… and these programmes suffer from lack of access to finance,” she said.

Demand pull emerging

Panellists also discussed a new public-private initiative – a $12 billion fund (Project Vault) backed by export finance and industry – aimed at securing supplies for the automotive, defence and energy sectors. It is a strategic initiative announced by the Trump administration to secure supply chains for critical minerals, reducing reliance on China and supporting US industry. 

The mechanism is expected to create demand for minerals abundant in Africa, including cobalt, lithium, nickel and rare earth elements.

The key question, speakers said, is whether demand will translate into processing on the continent or reinforce the export of raw materials to overseas refineries, particularly in China.

If supply agreements incorporate traceability and sustainability standards aligned with Western policies, beneficiation in Africa could increase, the event heard.

Investment outlook: opportunity with conditions

Matza predicted investment would rise in the US and Africa. The US will expand processing capacity, she said, but still requires feedstock.

“There are lots of minerals that just will never make sense to mine in the United States,” she said.

Africa’s geology – including world-class copper and cobalt deposits – ensures the continent will remain part of global supply chains, especially as infrastructure corridors such as the Lobito and Nacala routes develop.

However, she warned the structure of agreements will matter. “The trick… is to ensure it’s not exclusively extractive,” she said.

Negotiating power

Khan argued African governments may hold more leverage than commonly assumed. Ongoing bilateral trade negotiations directed by the US administration could create long-term agreements replacing short-term tariff uncertainty.

Washington increasingly frames engagement as “trade, not aid”, but also speaks of “shared prosperity”, she said. That could include infrastructure finance, technical support and labour-standards capacity in exchange for supply security.

“African countries have more negotiating power than they think they have,” Khan said.

A delicate tariffs balance

Despite the opportunities, McLeod urged caution. Protectionist industrial policies in developed countries could still marginalise African suppliers if processing is prioritised domestically, she said.

“If decision-making automatically chooses the developed country, that has negative connotations for less developed contexts,” she said.

Panellists agreed that communication between governments, industry and international partners will be critical as tariffs, quotas and strategic alliances reshape trade.

The emerging system, they concluded, will likely be more transactional and politically influenced than the previous globalised market – but Africa’s resource base ensures it remains central to the future of energy transition supply chains. ESI

Cover photo:  mariusz_prusaczyk©123rf.com