Cop30: Scientists warn countries must act decisively to protect people and life or risk ‘suffering for billions’ – as it happened

As president Lula tries to find common ground between negotiating countries, planetary scientists say emissions must be urgently cut

'Already facing danger': Scientists involved in Cop prep for the first time

Planetary scientists have warned President Lula today that Cop30 must act decisively because the world is at a crossroads: protect people and life or the fossil fuel industry, writes my colleague Jon Watts.

“We are already facing danger,” they warn in a statement on the state of negotiations, which take place against a backdrop of “suffering for billions of people and rapidly approaching tipping points in the Amazon and the Tropical Coral Reef systems and many others.”

Emissions must start to bend next year, they say, and then continue to fall steadily in the decades ahead: “We need to start, now, to reduce CO2 emissions from fossil-fuels, by at least 5% per year. This must happen in order to have a chance to avoid unmanageable and extremely costly climate impacts affecting all people in the world.”

The signatories include several of the world’s leading authorities on planetary science, forests and oceans: Carlos Nobre from Science Panel of the Amazon; Fatima Denton of United Nations University; Johan Rockström of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research; Marina Hirota; Instituto Serrapilheira; Paulo Artaxo - Universidade de São Paulo; Piers Forster of the University of Leeds; and Thelma Krug, who is Chair of the COP30 Science Council.

They say this is the first time that a COP presidency has involved scientists in the preparation of a climate conference and then provided a pavilion for them to share their findings and opportunities to provide updates to the negotiators.

Bearing in mind the gravity of the threat, their latest report says action needs to be accelerated: “We need to be as close as possible to absolute zero fossil fuel emissions by 2040, the latest by 2045. This means globally no new fossil fuel investments, removing all subsidies from fossil fuels and a global plan on how to phase in renewable and low-carbon energy sources in a just way, and phase out fossil fuels quickly.”

They say finance - from developed to developing countries - is essential for the credibility of the Paris Agreement. “It must be predictable, grant-based and consistent with a just transition and equity,” they say. “Without scaling and reforming climate finance, developing countries cannot plan, cannot invest and cannot deliver the transitions needed for a shared survival.”

This is the first climate conference in the Amazon rainforest, which used to be one of the planet’s great climate stabilisers. The scientists warn this can no longer be taken for granted: “The only reason we can have an orderly phase out of fossil fuels is because we assume forests will continue to be a major carbon sink. Unfortunately we have increasing evidence that forests are turning from carbon sinks to carbon sources. This happens because forests are vulnerable to climate change causing more frequent and intense droughts, fires, heatwaves and land use conversion.”

To address this, they stress that Cop30 also needs to produce a roadmap that concurrently ends deforestation and phases out fossil fuels.

“The Roadmap on ending deforestation must include financial support, capacity building and robust monitoring. Forest protection cannot be used as offsets. Standing forests cannot be an excuse to keep burning fossil fuels.“

Cover photo:  Indigenous people hold signs and wear T-shirts with demands for Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva during a demonstration called "Indigenous People Global March" at the COP30 UN Climate Change Conference in Belem Photograph: Pablo Porciúncula/AFP/Getty Images