EU kicks off debate on 2040 climate goal on way to net-zero emissions

The European Commission presented its recommendations for the EU’s 2040 climate target on Tuesday (6 February), arguing for a 90% cut in emissions compared to 1990, and paving the way for carbon capture technology to abate remaining emissions from industry.

Based on a detailed cost-benefit analysis, “the Commission recommends a 90% net greenhouse gas emissions reduction by 2040 compared to 1990 levels,” the Brussels-based EU executive said in a statement on Tuesday.

A 2040 climate target “will help European industry, investors, citizens and governments to make decisions in this decade that will keep the EU on track to meet its climate neutrality objective in 2050,” the Commission added.

The communication put forward today doesn’t set legally binding obligations on EU countries or industry at this stage – it only sets off a debate that will result in legislation after the June European elections where hardline conservative and far-right parties are expected to make big gains.

“A legislative proposal will be made by the next Commission, after the European elections, and agreed with the European Parliament and Member States as required under the EU Climate Law,” the Commission said.

The recommended 90% target for 2040 confirms previous leaked drafts of the proposal, obtained by Euractiv, and corresponds to the lower end of the target range advocated by the EU’s Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change.

A lower emissions target of 80% or 85-90% by 2040 was also examined but discarded in the end because it “largely leaves the deployment of new technologies to 2041-2050, and therefore risks not reaching climate neutrality by 2050,” the Commission argues.

By contrast, a 90% goal “is accompanied by faster investments for deployment of novel low carbon technologies such as hydrogen production by electrolysis, carbon capture and use and industrial carbon removals between 2031 and 2040,” it adds.

Deploying these technologies will be costly though, with “close to €660 billion” needed annually in energy investments in the 2031-2050 period, equivalent to 3.2% of the EU’s GDP. For transport, spending is estimated at around €870 billion per year over the same period, equivalent to 4.2% of GDP.

But doing nothing will be costly too, with climate-related economic damage in Europe estimated at €170 billion in the last five years, according to the EU executive. Reducing emissions and switching to clean energy will also help reduce Europe’s dependence on fossil fuels, which accounted for over 4% of GDP in 2022, the EU executive said.

Focus on implementation

According to Simone Tagliapietra, from Brussels-based think-tank Bruegel, the 90% target proposed today by the Commission speaks of continuity and revolution at the very same time.

“Continuity, because a due implementation of the ‘Fit for 55’ measures already approved by 2030 and their continued application up to 2040 would alone get the EU close to the target,” Tagliapietra said.

“Revolutionary, because doing so will require a massive decarbonisation of difficult sectors such as buildings and transport. To be socially acceptable and politically viable, this will require strong new EU actions already in the coming years, namely on fresh EU green funding to meet the massive investments required to get there.”

To be sure, reaching the 90% objective will be challenging.

“Saying the job is already almost done is just not true,” said Peter Liese, a German Christian Democrat lawmaker from the European People’s Party (EPP), the largest political group in the European Parliament.

“Most important for me is that the Commission focuses much more on international developments than they did before,” Liese told journalists on Tuesday. Liese’s recommendation is to establish “a task force on international carbon markets” to deal with requests from foreign countries related to the EU’s recently-adopted CO2 tariff, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).

The Commission “is flooded about demands about how to avoid CBAM. Obviously, it works. But at the same time, they don’t have staff for that,” Liese said.

The Commission is aware of this, saying “starting point is the full implementation of the existing legislation to reduce emissions by at least 55% by 2030”.

EU countries are currently not on track, with current national plans leading to an estimated 51% reduction in emissions.

“The ongoing update of the draft National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) is a key element in monitoring progress and the Commission is engaging with Member States, industry and social partners to facilitate the necessary action,” the Commission said.

Carbon removals

Another key aspect in the 2040 climate target debate is the place reserved for carbon removals that are expected to come from agriculture and forestry or emerging industrial technologies like Direct Air Capture (DAC) and Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS).

“Achieving the 90% recommended target will require both emissions reductions and carbon removals,” the Commission says. “It will require deployment of carbon capture and storage technologies, as well as the use of captured carbon in industry,” it adds, pointing to a related “Industrial Carbon Management strategy” published on Tuesday that is intended to support the development of CO2 supply chains and transport infrastructure.

“Carbon capture should be targeted to hard-to-abate sectors where alternatives are less economically viable. Carbon removals will also be needed to generate negative emissions after 2050,” the EU executive argues.

According to the Commission’s calculations, “the level of remaining EU GHG [greenhouse gas] emissions in 2040 should be less than 850 MtCO2-eq and carbon removals (from the atmosphere through land-based and industrial carbon removals) should reach up to 400 MtCO2”.

However, campaigners warn this could be a high-risk policy. Ahead of the Commission’s announcement, environmental groups warned that combining carbon removals with the EU’s existing emissions reduction goal applicable to regulated industries risks killing incentives for companies to reduce emissions, a phenomenon known as “mitigation deterrence”.

“This could result in emission reductions being delayed or replaced by promises of future removals or sequestration,” warned Carbon Market Watch and other green groups in an opinion article for Euractiv.

Their fears were confirmed by the Commission’s communication.

According to Carbon Market Watch, the proposal to sequester 400 MtCO2-eq annually by 2040 will bring down the EU’s actual emissions reduction target to 82%, not 90%.

“This is unrealistic and risky because the carbon absorption capacity of the EU’s land sinks have been in decline for many years now and storage in natural systems is in constant risk of releasing the stored carbon back into the atmosphere,” CMW warned. Meanwhile, technical removals like DAC are still in their infancy and are unlikely to be deployed at the scale needed to provide significant reductions in CO2 conentrations in the atmosphere.

Another critcism from green groups relates to the EU’s lack of clear planning when it comes to phasing out fossil fuels.

“You can set targets to cut greenhouse gases as high as you like, but without a clear plan to phase-out the fossil fuels that are producing them they simply aren’t credible,” said Dominic Eagleton from Global Witness. “The European Parliament and Member States need to recognise this and push for a rapid and just transition plan for a full phase-out of fossil fuels, starting with a 2035 end date for gas.”

Cover photo: A 2040 climate target “will help European industry, investors, citizens and governments to make decisions in this decade that will keep the EU on track to meet its climate neutrality objective in 2050,” the Euroepan Commission said. [Copyright: © European Union 2023 - Source : EP]