As Sea Levels Rise, an Island Nation Creates an Escape Route

Australia has created a new visa program for citizens of the small island nation of Tuvalu, which is being inundated by ocean water.

The small island nation of Tuvalu is being swallowed by the sea. 

With just around 10,000 residents, this Pacific network of reef islands and atolls has seen sea levels rise around 6 inches over the past three decades—one and half times the global average. Tides are projected to climb another 6 inches by 2050, which means the entire nation could soon be submerged. 

As locals scramble to combat this (somewhat) slow-motion catastrophe, leaders have worked with Australia to create an escape route: a first-of-its-kind “climate visa” that will allow 280 Tuvaluan people to obtain permanent residency in the larger country each year. The Australian visa lottery launched two weeks ago, and nearly half of Tuvalu’s residents have already applied, The New York Times reports. 

The move is representative of a growing global trend of climate-fueled migration. Millions of people in countries across Latin America, Africa and Asia—and even more developed countries like the U.S.— have been forced to flee their homes in the face of sea-level rise, extreme weather and other global warming impacts. 

These population shifts come with a range of diplomatic, logistical and emotional complexities. And with climate change invading every corner of the world, experts are asking two crucial questions: Where will everyone go—and is anywhere really safe? 

A Nation Underwater: Tuvalu’s nine islands add up to less than 10 square miles, making it one of the smallest countries in the world. Its residents have a strong connection to the environment but have struggled to adapt to the drastic changes that sea-level rise have brought to their island communities.

As high tides inundate the coastlines, saltwater is increasing the salinity content in soil and making it harder to grow crops such as taro, which locals depend on for food. Meanwhile, flooding has repeatedly destroyed homes and infrastructure in recent years. People are creating burial sites closer to their homes as cemeteries erode, a growing issue with climate change that I wrote about last year. 

“This for us is about our identity,” Talua Nivaga, a youth delegate from Tuvalu, said at a United Nations climate summit in 2023, which my colleague Nicholas Kusnetz covered. “Every inch of land that is flooded takes with it centuries of our heritage, of our traditions and our memories.”

In 2017, the government launched a project to build resilience against climate risks through beach restoration, seawalls and other strategies. However, recognizing that the rising tides may soon prove unrelenting, the Tuvaluan government worked with Australia to craft a different pathway—to allow people the option to leave altogether. 

Launched last year, this visa treaty aims to provide “a pathway for mobility with dignity as climate impacts worsen,” according to the Australian government. Applications opened last week and will be accepted until mid-July. 

Some locals have expressed opposition to the approach, while others are hoping to secure a visa and explore education or job opportunities in Australia, the Guardian reports.  

“There’s a lot of excitement around the migration pathway, both in Tuvalu and among our diaspora,” Tuvalu’s prime minister, Feleti Teo, told the Guardian. “It doesn’t mean you have to live the rest of your life in Australia. You can go in and come out as you wish.”

A Broader Trend: Tuvalu is not the only country seeing a climate-exacerbated reshuffling. In 2022, an estimated 32 million people were forcibly displaced within their countries by weather-related events such as floods, storms and wildfires, research found. The climate migration problem is particularly severe for small island nations and countries in the Greater Horn of Africa, where up to 10 percent of the population is expected to become climate migrants over the next few decades, according to research from the Global Centre for Climate Mobility. 

A 2020 analysis found that extreme weather and natural disasters could displace as many as 1.2 billion people as ecological changes fuel civil unrest and financial losses, CNN reported. This looming reshuffling of the world’s population could have profound implications on global politics and economies, experts say. 

For example, experts warn that if too many people leave Tuvalu or other nearby nations like Kiribati and Fiji too quickly, the local economy and access to certain social services could suffer. Also, the escape plan—Australia—is not without its own climate struggles. As Scientific American editors wrote in the wake of Hurricane Helene last September: “There are no climate havens.”  

In the United States, researchers predict that millions of people may choose to move to new areas due to wildfires, hurricanes and flooding. Even if their actual homes weren’t destroyed, the cascading impacts of these events such as insurance premium hikes, long-term health hazards and civil unrest could trigger a diaspora. 

Climate-driven displacement comes with an emotional burden. Tuvalu has a unique solution to preserve pieces of the nation’s cultural identity in the face of rising tides: building a digital replica in the metaverse. 

“The world’s inaction has led our Pacific region to take greater action and forge our own path as leaders on the international stage, but our action alone cannot stop the current trajectory of climate change,” Simon Kofe, a member of Tuvalu’s Parliament, said in a video announcing the project in 2021. “Only concerted global effort can ensure that Tuvalu does not move permanently online and disappear forever from the physical plane.” 

Cover photo:  The small island nation of Tuvalu is facing growing threats from rapidly rising sea levels. Credit: Mario Tama via Getty Images