Reaching net zero by 2050 ‘cheaper for UK than one fossil fuel crisis’

Climate change committee finds move to renewable energy would also bring health, economic and security benefits

Achieving the UK’s net zero target by 2050 will cost less than a single oil shock and bring health and economic benefits while insulating the country against future costs, the government’s climate advisers have forecast.

Eliminating the UK’s reliance on fossil fuels by adopting renewable energy and green technologies, such as electric vehicles and heat pumps, would be the best and most cost-effective option for the future economy, the Climate Change Committee (CCC) found.

Doing so would prevent the kind of shock that consumers are experiencing from the Iran war, which has sent the cost of oil and gas soaring to levels not seen since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Reaching net zero would cost about £4bn a year, the CCC found, or close to £100bn by 2050, which was roughly equivalent to the energy-related costs of the fossil fuel shocks that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The findings contradict widespread claims made by rightwing thinktanks and populist politicians including the Reform party that net zero would represent a crippling cost of £9tn to the UK’s economy. As well as exaggerating costs, these estimates failed to take into account the cost of paying for the fossil fuels needed for energy if we do not reach net zero.

Nigel Topping, chair of the CCC, said the real costs were not only manageable but offered protection against future fossil fuel supply crunches and against the impacts of the climate crisis. “In light of current world events, it’s more important than ever for the UK to move away from being reliant on volatile foreign fossil fuels, to clean, domestic, less wasteful energy,” he said.

Ed Miliband, the energy secretary, said: “It is highly significant that the CCC has found that the transition to net zero is cheaper for our national economy than the entire cost of the last gas price crisis, and can protect families from future fossil‑fuel price shocks. This is further proof that those who oppose our mission for clean energy would abandon the pursuit of national energy security, lower bills and protecting our children and grandchildren.”

Renewable energy is much more efficient than fossil fuels, as well as being more difficult for foreign governments to interrupt. People will also benefit from warmer homes, cleaner air, more active travel and healthier diets, with less red meat – representing about £2bn to £8bn in savings a year to the NHS and individuals.

Each pound invested in reaching net zero yielded between £2 and £4 in benefits, the CCC found. The saving on avoiding some of the impacts of climate breakdown would be worth as much as £130bn by 2050, according to a report published on Wednesday to supplement its advice to ministers on the seventh carbon budget.

The government is to make its response to the seventh carbon budget, which will run from 2038 to 2042, later this year.

Mike Childs, head of science at Friends of the Earth, said: “The current spike in the cost of gas and oil is a vivid reminder of why we must urgently end our reliance on volatile, costly fossil fuels – not remain hooked on them as some are cynically advocating.

“The CCC analysis shows the switch to clean, green renewables and electric vehicles is not only economically sensible but will make us far better off in the long run, while simultaneously safeguarding our environment.”

The UK is legally bound to reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 – the point at which the UK’s carbon output is balanced by the absorption of carbon dioxide from the country’s forests and land and any carbon storage facilities – but both the Conservative party and Reform have pledged to scrap the goal.

Cover photo:  The Ras Tanura oil refinery in Saudi Arabia. Eliminating the UK’s reliance on fossil fuels would be the most cost-effective option for the UK economy, the CCC said. Photograph: Ahmed Jadallah/Reuters